More than a presidential election, this Sunday Ecuadorians have a kind of plebiscite on the figure of Rafael Correa . The shadow of the former president , currently in Belgium, is projected on the struggle of a country ruined by the pandemic.
His young dolphin , Andrés Arauz, believes not only that he will defeat the banker Guillermo Lasso in the second round . His victory, says the Unen coalition, would open the possibility of vindicating the man who has become the cause of all the ills of Ecuador during the Lenin Moreno government.
The current president was for years an ally and heir to Correa’s power project but he betrayed him as soon as he assumed office.
The uncertainty is the norm for this race. The prestige of the pollsters has been questioned during the first round of February. The lack of success has led political analysts to read the polls of recent weeks with caution. Some consultants give Arauz the victory.
Others, to the conservative candidate. In what all the projections coincide is that the winner will only get a minimal advantage over his rival. Everything can happen on the night of April 11.
The campaign closed with the predictable hopeful messages from the contenders, in need of capturing the 47.5% of the electorate that did not vote for them months ago. Lasso, who in 2017 lost to Moreno, is confident that, finally, the rejection of Correa will give him victory.
Arauz was almost 13 points ahead of the banker. Before the proselytizing activities ended, he reported being the subject of a dirty campaign on social networks. In turn, he accused the Government of muddying the electoral process by decreeing a state of exception due to the pandemic.
The leftist candidate has called on the indigenous movement and the social democrats to form a ” great historical bloc”to close the way to the right. The leaders of the original communities have been divided in the face of this offer.
Regional effects
Moreno has an acceptance of 7% . Such unpopularity has prevented him from presenting a candidate to defend his work. In 2019 he faced a social outbreak . The health crisis ended up sinking it. Ecuador has more than 17,000 deaths and about 340,000 positive cases of covid.
As a consequence of the pandemic, the economy fell seven points in 2020. The collapse could be partially mitigated by the 3,338 million dollars that Ecuadorians sent from abroad in remittances .
Something more than a presidential renewal is at stake this Sunday. An eventual victory for Arauz would give air in the region to the progressive space , significantly weakened since the Workers’ Party (PT) stopped ruling in Brazil in 2016.
Following the electoral triumphs of Alberto Fernández and Luis Arce In Argentina and Bolivia, respectively, a process of recomposition of forces has begun in South America that, the most optimistic maintain, could continue in Chile and Brazil itself next year.